Author: Ron Shandler
Title: The BABS Project Uncovering the Truth About Winning at Fantasy Baseball
Print Length: 161 pages
Language: English, Francais, Italiano, Espanol, Deutsch
Format: PDF, ePub, mobi, azw, kf8, txt, ibook, Kindle
Over the past 30 years, Ron Shandler has been in search of the best baseball performance forecasting model. His goal was to achieve the most accurate projections so he could clobber his fantasy league opponents. He’s been writing about it in the Baseball Forecaster annual since 1986.But over time he started to realize that it was nearly impossible to project performance with enough precision for it to matter in putting together the best teams. The error bars were too wide. So he started to embrace the imprecision of the process.About a year ago, he realized that the numbers themselves were too confining. We still look at player projections, dollar values and ADPs, and fixate on those numbers as if they hold some religious significance. But they are all highly flawed.So he developed the Broad Assessment Balance Sheet. BABS says we should do several things. First, we should assess skill in very broad terms, otherwise, we get caught up in those wide error bars of normal statistical volatility. A player could hit 10 HRs one year, 15 the next and 20 the year after that, and everyone will see growth. The reality is that could actually be the same player each year. While BABS evaluates skill in broad terms, the underlying statistics are still based in sabermetrics. But BABS does not project how many HRs a player will hit, or how many strikeouts or stolen bases or wins. BABS just describes his demonstrated skill within the context of the player population as a whole. Second, and perhaps the more important element of BABS is separating the skill from the risk factors. Players are evaluated as a balance sheet of assets and liabilities. The reason that this is so important is that our statistical projections now try to capture too many variables. A player’s projection is both an objective calculation of skill combined with subjective adjustments for health, experience, regression, environment and the impact on playing time. A single stat line can’t possibly describe all those variables at once and still claim to be accurate.Finally, BABS sets targets for your roster. What are the minimum skills and playing time, and the maximum amount of risk you can afford to take on and still come out of the draft with a competitive team?In the end, BABS tells us that players are more alike than they are different. And the more the marketplace tries to differentiate between like-skilled players, the more opportunity there is for Draft Day profit. That is where you find your ultimate competitive advantage.The BABS Project describes the journey. You’ll see how the concept evolved and then learn how to use it to win your leagues. Complete BABS ratings and cheat sheets for the upcoming season are then available at RonShandler.com.